alan tani @ alantani.com fishing reel repair rebuild tutorial Never Rely On The NMS To Forcast
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July 17, 2018, 01:15:45 PM *
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Author Topic: Never Rely On The NMS To Forcast  (Read 627 times)
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SoCalAngler
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« on: June 16, 2018, 08:17:44 PM »

I just got back from a trip where the National Marine Forecast predicted less than 10 knts of wind and seas less than 2 feet.

Well it was blowing 15-20 knts at 6AM and 20-25 knts by 8:00. The predicted swell was 2-4' in the morning. We left the harbor and it was already over the 2-4' mark and silly as we were 26 miles in crappy sea's thinking it would get better. There were mixed sea's and swells so the 2-4' easily became 5-6' with 20-25 knts of wind.

Lets start at 6AM at that time still no report on bad sea's, cool, right? Well hell no half way through the crossing the NMF says...Small craft advisory. WTF? I know we made the call and yes it is on us as boat operators, Capts, crews and such. But, how can a National Weather Service be so out of touch?

Like I said I don't blame them for our fishing trip, but just think about how many peoples lives they put in stake because people listen to them?
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Dominick
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2018, 08:37:12 PM »

Well this is what we are getting out the Golden Gate tomorrow.  And this opening day for salmon.  Dominick

Sun SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 8 to 10 ft at 11 seconds and SW 3 ft at 18 seconds. Areas of drizzle in the morning.
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Leave the gun.  Take the cannolis.

 Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he will sit in a boat all day drinking beer.
Shark Hunter
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« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2018, 09:57:18 PM »

The Weather Men have no accountability.
I often say I want to be a weatherman,
if I'm wrong, It is OK.
They get it wrong more than right.
It pays the same.
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STRIPER LOU
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« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2018, 03:28:35 AM »

We use the Weather Channel Forecast here. On the computer, when you choose hourly for your area, it will give you the approximate wind speed and direction by the hour.

Fortunately, its been pretty accurate. Others I've used were terrible.

Type in your zip in the Weather Channel header and see if its available for your area.

The rain I can handle, but the wind not so much!

.....................Lou
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handi2
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« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2018, 08:44:45 AM »

Its the same here in NW Florida. There is a website called Windy. Check it out.
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OCD Reel Service & Repair
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Jersey Devil
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« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2018, 10:16:58 AM »

I use good seance and look at the weather map/radar local systems are the best for weather in my area.


Joe
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"I don't know the key to success,but the key to failure is trying to please everyone."
oc1
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« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2018, 12:32:25 PM »

I use an android app called Windfinder Pro.  It has wind speed and direction, swell height and direction, high and low tide, sunrise sunset, all at three hour intervals for your nearest station.  The forecasts go forward for about ten days.

They are usually correct but not any more or less accurate than NWS.  They are all using pretty much the same algorithms and data.  

My take is different from many of you.  I'm grateful for the huge and continuing  improvements in weather forecasting.  It is so much better than it used to be.  Long range predictions based on the Southern Oscillation (the El Nino thing) are particularly impressive.

Life looks much brighter now that the La Nina has broken.  The recent prediction is for El Nino neutral conditions through the summer with a new El Nino forming in the fall and probably carrying through into next spring.  Good news for fishing in Hawaii.
-steve
« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 12:33:28 PM by oc1 » Logged
Alto Mare
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« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2018, 02:01:05 PM »

Keep in mind you’re always taking a chance.
No matter what you use, things could change quickly when you’re out there.
I had a hard time getting back a couple of times.

Sal
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Forget about all the reasons why something may not work. You only need to find one good reason why it will.
Benni3
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« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2018, 07:55:16 PM »

I go to,,usairnet.com,,,it's aviation weather ,,,but you can never talk about the weather again  Huh? People just get mad,,,because that's not what the weather man said Grin
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« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2018, 08:30:01 AM »


 I use NOAA weather website and also watch local channels for weather.

 I always look at the day before, the day I plan to fish, and the day after......to me the day after forecast is just as important as the day I plan to run offshore. If it says 5-15 for the day and is building to a 15-25 for the next day, then I know there's a chance the next day forecast could come early.

 Ted
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Three se7ens
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« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2018, 05:30:17 PM »

I use weather channel and weatherbug on my phone.  They rarely agree, but between the two I can get a decent idea.  I also use the navionics app for winds as well.
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Dominick
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« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2018, 01:24:58 PM »

Hey Steve thanks for the tip on Windfinder.  Good site.  Dominick
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Leave the gun.  Take the cannolis.

 Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he will sit in a boat all day drinking beer.
oc1
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« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2018, 11:55:35 PM »

Dominick, I need a particular combination of wind direction, wind speed and tide to have a chance of catching anything so I check Windfinder every day to see if there is anything coming up.  Then, on the day, I check NOAA Hi Def Radar to see if there are any squall lines on the horizon.
-steve
« Last Edit: July 02, 2018, 11:59:27 PM by oc1 » Logged
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