Hurricane Lane

[Tightlines667]

Hurricane Lane is on final approach to the vicinity of the Main Hawaiian Islands.



I do work for NOAA, and have been recieving daily briefings on the storm straight from the source.  The trades and upper level winds in the MHI (especially further north) have strengthened, while the storm itself remains in more favorable southern waters and has strengthened.  As it approaches the MHIs and encounters the stronger trades, and upper level shear it will weaken and shift westwards.  Consequently, windfield related effects to Oahu are expected to be less than anticipated (~60% chance to tropical storm force winds, 10% of hurricane force winds).  It will likely blow 25-35knots for 12-24hrs, and maybe 10hours in the 30-40knot range here locally.  It will likely move much closer to Kauai, but the storm will have weakened by that time so winds will likely remain below 50knots.  We have a full moon with high tides, that will amplify the hurricane-driven surf, especially on asouth and east facing shores.  It has significant moisture, is moving slow, and as it breaks down will create wetter conditions.  The same forces that tear tye storm apart will result in greater rainfall.  We are looking at 10-12" in 24hrs on Oahu, with 2 day totals in some areas approaching 20".  Kauai will experience much greater rainfall.  Kona on the bigisland may have some significant hurricane weather, with tropical storm force winds and lots of rain highly likely. 

I opted to leave my boat in tye water tied to a floating dock in Iroquois Point Harbor.  All valuables are removed, full insurance coverage is up, all hatches secured/taped, photos taken, most gear is removed, and vessel is secured with double lines. 

I also have my hurricane kit, propane, cooler with ice, plenty of water ready to ride out tye storm, if it does happen to shift 50-100nm further north than predicted.

Everyone on the islands is taking this one more seriously.

John

[Swami805]

Be safe John,this one looks bad,hope the brunt of it misses you.

[oc1]

Yesterday, the model Windfinder uses had it almost graze the Kona coast and instantly break apart when the north side hit Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.  Today they have it passing further to the south then hooking back to the NNW with pretty good convection until it approaches Maui.  Still say 30-40ish.

John, has the water been a little warmer this summer or is that my imagination?
-steve

[54bullseye]

Better stash all the Internationals !!!  Hope it goes lite on you ! Be safe.     John Taylor

[Gfish]

Alright John! Thanks for postin that. That report and Steve's additional info., is the best I've seen yet. We got gas lines spillin out onto the street everywhere I go here. Didn't even try Costco cause I'm sure it's a warehouse/fuel pump mad-house. I'm a "ready-Fredy", or at least I think I am... Sometimes ya godda go through stuff to really figure it out. Glad I'm livin upland from the beach.
Haven't noticed any water temp. diffrences here. Like to see some real temp. data, though.

[Fishy247]

Be safe guys!!

[oc1]

I guess we're not taking it seriously enough but my wife tried to by gas this morning and the station had a five gallon limit.  She just left rather than wait in line.  Our emergency provisions are the free range chickens in the yard.
-steve

[Shark Hunter]

Be safe guys.
I will say a prayer for ya,
Daron

[Marcq]

Man!!! That's a huge one 

Be safe

Marc..

[wailua boy]

It looks like the chances of serious impact from high wind is diminishing here on Maui and hoping for the best for the other islands. Even at 7:00am the line for fuel at Costco went out to road every where is sold out of bottled water.

[conchydong]

Good luck guys. Hope it works out for you. As a South Floridian that has been through quite a lot of these, I hope you have a generator and fuel along with the basics such as water and canned goods.
Wishing you the best outcome,

Scott

[Tightlines667]

Latest update shows the storm has slowed.  High pressure north of the islands is building, and predicted to shift the track slightly west and weaken the storm to a cat 1 by the time it reaches Oahu.

Still a massive storm over 300nm in diameter.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane&stormid=ep142018

[Ron Jones]

I'm supposed to land on Oahu tomorrow at 8:00 in order to move my house hold goods on Friday! Airline is asking if we want to change our flight date.
Ron

[SoCalAngler]

Good luck, take care and be safe.

I have only been through a Cat 3 in Baja where I saw through the middle of the eye. 17 inches of rain in less than 8 hours. I spent the next 3 days getting water, fuel, setting up generators, filling pila's and such for the locals.

I hope you find everything lesser. I saw washes as wide as a football field that went through several homes. We were lucky that no one lost their life but a few were missing for days. No way to contact them until a few of us went looking with our off road vehicles.

Good luck my friend.....even though I don't know you  

[Reel 224]

Hunker down John and batten the hatches, Prayers go out for everyone's safety.

Joe