Hurricane Lane is on final approach to the vicinity of the Main Hawaiian Islands.
I do work for NOAA, and have been recieving daily briefings on the storm straight from the source. The trades and upper level winds in the MHI (especially further north) have strengthened, while the storm itself remains in more favorable southern waters and has strengthened. As it approaches the MHIs and encounters the stronger trades, and upper level shear it will weaken and shift westwards. Consequently, windfield related effects to Oahu are expected to be less than anticipated (~60% chance to tropical storm force winds, 10% of hurricane force winds). It will likely blow 25-35knots for 12-24hrs, and maybe 10hours in the 30-40knot range here locally. It will likely move much closer to Kauai, but the storm will have weakened by that time so winds will likely remain below 50knots. We have a full moon with high tides, that will amplify the hurricane-driven surf, especially on asouth and east facing shores. It has significant moisture, is moving slow, and as it breaks down will create wetter conditions. The same forces that tear tye storm apart will result in greater rainfall. We are looking at 10-12" in 24hrs on Oahu, with 2 day totals in some areas approaching 20". Kauai will experience much greater rainfall. Kona on the bigisland may have some significant hurricane weather, with tropical storm force winds and lots of rain highly likely.
I opted to leave my boat in tye water tied to a floating dock in Iroquois Point Harbor. All valuables are removed, full insurance coverage is up, all hatches secured/taped, photos taken, most gear is removed, and vessel is secured with double lines.
I also have my hurricane kit, propane, cooler with ice, plenty of water ready to ride out tye storm, if it does happen to shift 50-100nm further north than predicted.
Everyone on the islands is taking this one more seriously.
John
Be safe John,this one looks bad,hope the brunt of it misses you.
Yesterday, the model Windfinder uses had it almost graze the Kona coast and instantly break apart when the north side hit Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. Today they have it passing further to the south then hooking back to the NNW with pretty good convection until it approaches Maui. Still say 30-40ish.
John, has the water been a little warmer this summer or is that my imagination?
-steve
Better stash all the Internationals !!! Hope it goes lite on you ! Be safe. John Taylor
Alright John! Thanks for postin that. That report and Steve's additional info., is the best I've seen yet. We got gas lines spillin out onto the street everywhere I go here. Didn't even try Costco cause I'm sure it's a warehouse/fuel pump mad-house. I'm a "ready-Fredy", or at least I think I am... Sometimes ya godda go through stuff to really figure it out. Glad I'm livin upland from the beach.
Haven't noticed any water temp. diffrences here. Like to see some real temp. data, though.
Be safe guys!!
I guess we're not taking it seriously enough but my wife tried to by gas this morning and the station had a five gallon limit. She just left rather than wait in line. Our emergency provisions are the free range chickens in the yard.
-steve
Be safe guys.
I will say a prayer for ya,
Daron
Man!!! That's a huge one :o
Be safe
Marc..
It looks like the chances of serious impact from high wind is diminishing here on Maui and hoping for the best for the other islands. Even at 7:00am the line for fuel at Costco went out to road every where is sold out of bottled water.
Good luck guys. Hope it works out for you. As a South Floridian that has been through quite a lot of these, I hope you have a generator and fuel along with the basics such as water and canned goods.
Wishing you the best outcome,
Scott
Latest update shows the storm has slowed. High pressure north of the islands is building, and predicted to shift the track slightly west and weaken the storm to a cat 1 by the time it reaches Oahu.
Still a massive storm over 300nm in diameter.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane&stormid=ep142018
I'm supposed to land on Oahu tomorrow at 8:00 in order to move my house hold goods on Friday! Airline is asking if we want to change our flight date.
Ron
Good luck, take care and be safe.
I have only been through a Cat 3 in Baja where I saw through the middle of the eye. 17 inches of rain in less than 8 hours. I spent the next 3 days getting water, fuel, setting up generators, filling pila's and such for the locals.
I hope you find everything lesser. I saw washes as wide as a football field that went through several homes. We were lucky that no one lost their life but a few were missing for days. No way to contact them until a few of us went looking with our off road vehicles.
Good luck my friend.....even though I don't know you
Hunker down John and batten the hatches, Prayers go out for everyone's safety.
Joe
Hope you all get thru this ok. Just heard a cat 4 storm. Hunker down and be safe!
John, I hope you and everyone else on the path are safe.
I'm thinking about you guys and hoping for the best.
Sal
Thinking about you guys who are in the line of fire.
Frank
When we lived in Highland Beach FL, we lived thru 2 serious Hurricanes and aside from having food & water what really saved us when we lost our electric was a Honda 2000 generator, we had our refrigerator running and a couple of lights going. Still have it for any emergency, it was a great investment.
joel8080
Delta is letting us fly. I'm not certain it's a great idea to head into a storm, but I do have to get my property; especially since I need some of it for Cedros!
Ron
Stay safe all, and take no unreasonable chances.
Today the model is still showing it pass south of the Big Island then turn northeast into Maui. Kaupo could take the brunt of it with 50+ knots before the convection is broken up by Haleakala. Be careful Wailua Boy. Molokai would get almost 50 knots from the back side. The remnants would then drift off almost due west.
Everyone's frantic and excited about the approach. That's always the way it is, but very seldom is there devastation or life-threatening conditions. Iniki (25 years ago) was a fluke because the steering current shot the storm northward and it hit Kauai before loosing all its energy to the cooler Hawaiian water. Lane, on the other hand, is a wanderer.
I just told all this to the mail lady. She scolded me for talking like that and fears I have now jinxed it for everyone. I'll apologize to the survivors next week. Might even get two days of good fishing weather early next week if the water isn't brown.
-steve
So far so good. 1pm HST. Intermittent calm peroids with moderate to heavy rain, then some pretty healthy winds. Waitin for the high-wind + heavy rain at the same time-thing, sos I know it's real.
I just drove back from south side and it's been raining steadily with light winds with small to moderate surf, I'm heading home for day and will keep everyone posted as weather develops. Here a picture of my dads barn, I guess he decided to put some weight on the roof.
I know your Dad is trying his best to save his property, he might want to keep an eye on that bucket.
I used to operate a LULL and the boom used to lose pressure if left up for a while. That would be too much weight for that roof.
Good luck out there.
Sal
Quote from: Alto Mare on August 24, 2018, 12:32:49 AM
I know your Dad is trying his best to save his property, he might want to keep an eye on that bucket.
I used to operate a LULL and the boom used to lose pressure if left up for a while. That would be too much weight for that roof.
Good luck out there.
Sal
Thanks Sal, I'll mention it to him. It's about 10pm and the wind is getting gusty in the 20-30 mph range with little to no rain on leeward Haleakala. Surprisingly no power outages at my house but other parts of upcountry Maui are reporting outages.
The Windfinder model now shows the eye slowing down and breaking up farther out to sea as it approaches the Maui coast. It is in that corner between Maui and the Big Island so mountains on both islands may help to break the convection. There are some god-awful bands of rain though.
-steve
We weathered the storm pretty well
over here on Maui. I actually didn't even lose power. There is brush fire around Lahaina that is threatening structures and hoping the rain puts it out quickly.
Weird huh, a brush fire with this much precipitation.
Kaua'i's gettin 'er now, 11AM HST. Wind + rain. Hopin the power don't go off, but it probably will. We got one radio station workin.
The brush fire does seem strange but was there lightning? That'd do it even if it's raining.
Doesn't usually get so big, though.
Glad most areas out there seem to be doing okay. Worried about mud slides near the lava damaged areas..that can't be a good combo.
I'm sitting at Ko Olina and it is gusty with a side of overcast. Kind of less than happy that EVERYTHING shut down for this. After living here for six years, I honestly think the retailers pay off the news to sensationalize the storm in order to get their shelves cleared and then allow them to have a day off. Even the tropical storm that hit Oahu a few years ago wasn't much more than Santa Ana winds and a winter downpour at the same time.
Ron
They have sold alotta stuff the past 1.5 weeks...
The latest I heard on fire was it was intentionally set...
Quote from: Ron Jones on August 24, 2018, 09:10:28 PM
I honestly think the retailers pay off the news to sensationalize the storm in order to get their shelves cleared and then allow them to have a day off.
The first thing to disappear from the shelves is toilet paper. They ran out for an extended period once many years ago and nobody has forgotten it. Everyone gets the day off for Christmas and hurricanes. A great tradition, don't you think?
-steve
I guess it would be if there was a hurricane.
Ron
Yes, of course you are correct Ron. I agree with your assessment of the media's role in this madness too. But, the media has another co-conspirator, the National Weather Service (with absolutely no offense to John who works for NOAA and started this thread). NWS presents the worst-case scenario and tells us to prepare and hide. They say they err on the side of caution to protect lives. I say they're just covering their own behind. You can surf through NWS on-line products and never find a prediction that is as detailed and realistic as what you get from a silly little Android app (there are several of them). The apps are based on computer models, most of which were developed for or by NWS with raw data collected and disseminated by NWS and NOAA.
The problem is not just in Hawaii because you see the same thing happening along the Southeast and Gulf coasts. If anything, Hawaii gets off easy. Since there is no place for us to go they can't tell us to evacuate more than a few blocks. When they tell a few million people in Florida to evacuate the region there is really no place for them to go either unless you want them sleeping in their cars along the Interstate. With severe storms becoming more frequent and coastal populations still growing, they are going to have to rethink their approach. This is one case where I think the nanny state has gone too far.
-steve
No doubt there's some CYA involved but imagine if that storm had come ashore as a Cat 5 and they didn't hype it. Much better to have a population over prepared with a weak storm than under prepared for a big one.Once and awhile they get it right too.
Totally Agreeded!!!!
A major direct hit was averted - Praise GOD!
As an old Boy Scout - Eagle Scout to be exact, Always "BE PREPARED"!
and the words of my Dad, I can still hear today - "Wayne, remember the 5 P's of planning - Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance"
That might have been a military term:
http://simmymart.blogspot.com/2012/07/5ps-6ps-7ps-10ps-and-12-ps.html
and
http://military.wikia.com/wiki/7_Ps_(military_adage)
Now, let's all get back to fishing!
Wayne
I think I live in the kingdom of over hyped weather events. They absoluetly loose their minds here if it's going to rain but once in awhile they're right and it does get pretty ugly.
Reminds me of reading the racing from at the track, study it well and you'll pick more winning horses but no one knows for sure what will happen.