El Nino and Salmon

Started by Bill B, July 30, 2015, 07:11:30 PM

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Bill B

Does anyone want to venture a guess as to how salmon season will be affected by the El Nino conditions we are experiencing on the West Coast?  More/less fish? Earlier/later run up the rivers?  Is there any historical data we can look at?

Thanks....Bill
It may not be very productive,
but it's sure going to be interesting!

Tightlines667

I might speculate that the run might be a little later then is typical...due to higher water temps.  Though the temperature of the water in the rivers may not be directly related, and largely unaffected.  There may be increased flow overall due to increased rainfail.  Offshore productivity will likely be reduced for the North Pacific region where the fish forage.  This might reduce the numbers of fish returning to spawn, but likely will have no noticable affect on this year's run.  It would affect those fish that are actively feeding offshore throughout this year and next (i.e. the next year class or next 2 year classes, depending on what species you are talking about) more.  Demonstrating direct cause-effect relationships between the natural long term climate cycle and shorter term ocillations on return rate, survivability, and reproductive timing on a species level is a very difficult task in deed.  There are many influencing facters at work here.
Hope springs eternal
for the consumate fishermen.

johndtuttle

Quote from: TARFU on July 30, 2015, 07:11:30 PM
Does anyone want to venture a guess as to how salmon season will be affected by the El Nino conditions we are experiencing on the West Coast?  More/less fish? Earlier/later run up the rivers?  Is there any historical data we can look at?

Thanks....Bill

Rivers or Ocean?

The Ocean bite has been pretty slow but picking up around the golden gate. Go to USfishing.com for recent reports from the landings for specifics.

Water temps have been high and winds low (they are related) so the fish have been mostly far to the north. If it gets super warm in the gulf of the Farallons the bite shuts off. Been very slow down the coast mostly for the above reasons.

As far as returning Salmon go, they will come back when they have to, so unless the Rivers are flooding this fall (no one knows) the fishing should be as expected in the Sacramento River with improving numbers now that smolts are being trucked around the stripers. If it wasnt for the hatcheries there wouldn't be any returning Salmon at all due to damns. As they dial in their science in getting healthy smolts to the Ocean it should only get better in coming years in terms of numbers of returning fish.

Steve-O

I follow the Alaska scene regarding salmon runs and Coho in particular. Right now folks are starting to see what many are calling a 20-30 year best ever fishing experience on the water. Whittier area in particular is completely on fire with incredible amounts of fish everywhere.

Kings are winding down for the most part and I fish Southeast Alaska each fall for Silvers (coho). My lodge boats are reporting killer fishing with huge Kings still being caught, big Silvers, nice regulation size Halibut limits and I'm dying to get up there. :(

Don't know how AK results factor in for the Central West Coast but it could be a home run year.....or not. :)

humboldtdan

Actually, there are very good relationships between ocean conditions and salmon survival.
Pearcy, W. G., and Amy Schoener. "Changes in the marine biota coincident with the 1982–1983 El Nino in the northeastern subarctic Pacific Ocean." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978–2012) 92.C13 (1987): 14417-14428.

Mueter, Franz J., Brian J. Pyper, and Randall M. Peterman. "Relationships between coastal ocean conditions and survival rates of northeast Pacific salmon at multiple lags." Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 134.1 (2005): 105-119.

Mantua, Nathan J., and Steven R. Hare. "The Pacific decadal oscillation." Journal of oceanography 58.1 (2002): 35-44.

We have had poor ocean conditions for a couple of years now.  This, coupled with the 3+ years of drought is going to be very bad for salmonids in the PNW.  My prediction is that beginning this year we will have a significant reduction in the number of salmon, perhaps even to the point of fishery closures.  Alaska may be good!  Reproductive timing is unlikely to be significantly affected.  I hope I am wrong...

humboldtdan

Its not the trucking around the stripers that is the big deal, its the trucking around the diversions that has the largest effect.

johndtuttle

Quote from: humboldtdan on July 30, 2015, 08:40:12 PM
Its not the trucking around the stripers that is the big deal, its the trucking around the diversions that has the largest effect.


You are absolutely right about that. I forgot about that part of the equation. :)

Tightlines667

Quote from: humboldtdan on July 30, 2015, 08:36:12 PM
Actually, there are very good relationships between ocean conditions and salmon survival.
Pearcy, W. G., and Amy Schoener. "Changes in the marine biota coincident with the 1982–1983 El Nino in the northeastern subarctic Pacific Ocean." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978–2012) 92.C13 (1987): 14417-14428.

Mueter, Franz J., Brian J. Pyper, and Randall M. Peterman. "Relationships between coastal ocean conditions and survival rates of northeast Pacific salmon at multiple lags." Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 134.1 (2005): 105-119.

Mantua, Nathan J., and Steven R. Hare. "The Pacific decadal oscillation." Journal of oceanography 58.1 (2002): 35-44.

We have had poor ocean conditions for a couple of years now.  This, coupled with the 3+ years of drought is going to be very bad for salmonids in the PNW.  My prediction is that beginning this year we will have a significant reduction in the number of salmon, perhaps even to the point of fishery closures.  Alaska may be good!  Reproductive timing is unlikely to be significantly affected.  I hope I am wrong...

I agree, there has been relatively poor conditions offshore the last several years.  This may actually increase catchability, but will reduce survivability, and overall condition of returning fish.  Curiously, the warmer temps have increased surface stratification and it has improved feeding success of some species...many seabird dpecies accross the region have had bunker years. 

I agree, timing of spawning runs will likely be largly unaffected by higher water temps.

Also, I didn't mean to say there was no research out there on the affects of El Nino, just that direct causation (i.e. cause-effect relationships) are difficult to demonstrate on this temporal spatisl scale.
Hope springs eternal
for the consumate fishermen.

swill88

Golden Gate Salmon Assoiation (http://goldengatesalmonassociation.com/) is loaded with resources on conditons of the spawning runs. The Sierra snowpack, the runoff, and the dam release water temps seem to get the most attention. Low fresh water flow seems to be the enemy. Obviously.

A good organization worthy of a donation or a purchase imho.

Not sure how el nino impacts snow levels. At best, I have a good reading knowledge of these topics.

Bill B

The latest water temp for my area is 75 degrees...the water flow and levels have been pretty steady with Folsom releasing lots of water right now, but I expect the levels to start dropping soon as Folsom Lake is getting dangerously low...a few Kings have been caught so far...but nothing worth getting the boat out for....will keep everyone posted...so now the focus is Dove Season...
It may not be very productive,
but it's sure going to be interesting!

Tightlines667

That looks like fun.  Good wingshooting there.
Hope springs eternal
for the consumate fishermen.

ALASKAFISHMAN

It has meant more fish for us up here, at least for our feeder or winter kings.  Best year ever on record.  Most boats right now going out of Homer AK are reporting limit catches or just short of that.  Which is not bad considering there is a two fish per day limit on the winter kings.  We are still hitting a few halibut while trolling for the kings as well.  So it look good so far, we will have to wait and see what May and June bring.

Brent
Fish and hunt, Fish and hunt, eat, sleep fish and hunt, fish and hunt