alan tani @ alantani.com fishing reel repair rebuild tutorial storms
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alantani
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« on: September 30, 2018, 09:57:53 AM »

rosa will make landfall soon, leaving a week for the slop to lay down before we hit the water.  hopefully sergio will continue to head west and not be a concern.

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Ron Jones
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2018, 10:33:18 AM »

This will be very frustrating if it goes bad. Looking regularly, like every 5 minutes.
Ron
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Ronald Jones
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ldoret94
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2018, 11:56:25 AM »

Keeping my fingers crossed Grin
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swill88
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2018, 01:58:39 PM »

rosa will make landfall soon, leaving a week for the slop to lay down before we hit the water.  hopefully sergio will continue to head west and not be a concern.



Alan, can you share the link to that report?
Also, How cold at night do we prepare for?
Steve
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alantani
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2018, 02:16:41 PM »

a light jacket or sweatshirt is all that should be needed. 

https://www.newsweek.com/tropical-storm-sergio-forms-tracking-west-pacific-expected-become-hurricane-1145094
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 02:17:24 PM by alantani » Logged

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alantani
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2018, 02:42:52 PM »

https://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-sergio-path-models-update-long-term-forecast-shows-storm-could-1150869

Quote
After the remnants of Hurricane Rosa delivered the rainiest October day ever to the Phoenix area this week, causing flooding and closings schools, another hurricane may be inclined to track the same path next week, according to the latest longer-term forecast models.

On Tuesday, Sergio became a major hurricane—the ninth of the Northeast Pacific 2018 season so far—and is expected to strengthen, perhaps to Category 4. The biggest question about Hurricane Sergio is, however, Where is the storm ultimately headed?



Hurricane Sergio is currently 855 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico, and moving west-northwest at 12 miles per hour in the Pacific. With maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour, Sergio was a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday. The latest official National Hurricane forecast model shows Sergio taking a more westerly turn in the Pacific soon, away from Baja California and the desert Southwest—for now.

Hurricane Sergio Spaghetti Models
Hurricane Sergio spaghetti models, including the Global Forecast System (GFS), the European and the National Hurricane Center official track, show the storm could turn back toward Baja California, and the desert Southwest after five days of moving west.
STORMVISTAWXMODELS.COM

Longer term, however, Hurricane Sergio spaghetti models, including the Global Forecast System (GFS) and European models, show Sergio running into resistance in its forecasted westerly path, and perhaps taking a turn back, directly along Hurricane Rosa’s path—making landfall along Baja California and moving into Arizona, bringing more rain. Rainfall forecast models across the U.S. for the next two weeks show heavier than normal rainfall for the desert Southwest.

For the moment, and in the next few days, Hurricane Sergio is moving across open water in the Pacific, encountering favorable conditions for strengthening.

“The western portion of a mid-level ridge to the north of Sergio is expected to weaken during the next day or so, which should cause the hurricane to move northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed. By the weekend, another ridge is predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio, and this should force the hurricane to turn westward,” the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday, in its latest forecast update on Sergio.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2018, 03:33:45 PM by alantani » Logged

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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2018, 03:23:23 PM »

Lets hope things proceed westward and all we get is a sleep inducing swell. Kinda like being rocked to sleep many years ago in moms arms. If not some real fowl weather gear will be added to the duffel. Right now I just have a light jacket and my pants will be my skin, which does dry rather quick. Tommy
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2018, 06:12:17 PM »

Tommy,
Those are called rack rolls, and they're the BEST! Please bring enough pants, I have no desire to see any unnecessary skin!
The Man
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Ronald Jones
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alantani
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2018, 04:41:31 AM »

here's another map.

https://www.tcpalm.com/pages/interactives/storm-tracker/#current
« Last Edit: October 04, 2018, 04:42:21 AM by alantani » Logged

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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2018, 11:56:09 AM »

Alan, have you had a chance to talk to the landing about what the options are? I'm down for anything, but driving through a tropical storm on the surface seems kinda silly. They suck enough when you're under water.
Ron
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Ronald Jones
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alantani
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2018, 01:32:59 PM »

i spoke to annemarie 2 days ago.  mike is going to continue to follow this.  she knows that we are all very concerned.  the timing of this storm is really bad.  the most recent predictions have it headed straight for cedros.  right now, it is on a due westerly track.  on monday, the 8th, it is modeled to turn northwards.  on tuesday, the 9th, it is supposed to turn to the northwest.  on the 10th, wednesday, the storm will approach cedros, impacting the area for 100 miles in any direction.  even mag bay to the south looks to be hit by 30 to 40 knot winds.  i would not want hawaii to get hammered again, but i am really hoping this storm continues to track west and away from us.  

https://www.windfinder.com/?utm_source=windfinder.com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=redirect#5/22.6343/-116.3672/2018-10-04T18:00Z

https://www.windfinder.com/?utm_source=windfinder.com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=redirect#6/26.7652/-118.4546/2018-10-11T12:00Z
« Last Edit: October 04, 2018, 01:47:43 PM by alantani » Logged

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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2018, 04:17:45 PM »

All we can do is pray. I know the area can use the rain, but Cat 4 is a lot of rain.
Ron
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