Possible El Niño This Year

Started by Bill B, March 15, 2023, 08:35:00 PM

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Bill B

Did some reading today and there is a good chance of a neutral El Niño event and a 47% chance of an El Niño event.  From my limited weather knowledge, it's been 40 years since my college meteorology class, the water will be warmer this year than last year.  Not sure what that will do to the long range fishing.

I posted the revenant notes below and the full link below that.

Any amateur weather guessers care to chime in?  Bill


"In summary, the probabilities derived from the models in the IRI ENSO forecast plume indicate the termination of the current La Niña event in the next couple of months. ENSO-neutral is the dominant category during Mar-May (94% chance), Apr-Jun (79% chance) and May-Jul (51% chance), while the chances of La Niña are 3%, 1%, and 2% respectively. The likelihood of El Niño development remains low during boreal spring (4% in Mar-May, and 20% in Apr-Jun 2023), but increases to 47% in May-Jul, and become the dominant category during rest of the forecast period (56 to 59% chances). The chance of La Niña re-emerging are low (just under 10%) in the later part of the forecast period."

https://lakegregoryweather.com/el-nino-info-2/

It may not be very productive,
but it's sure going to be interesting!

CI_Seawolf

Saw a forecast yesterday on tv.  Looks like a warmer water pattern setting up.  Stay tuned for exotics coming north!
Stay Classy!

MarkT

A strong El Niño could bring Wahoo back into local waters... last time was 2016!
When I was your age Pluto was a planet!

Bill B

Weren't they catching dodo's off San Clemente last year? 
It may not be very productive,
but it's sure going to be interesting!

MarkT

I've caught Dorado on 3/4 day boats out of Dana Point and overnight ers south of San Clemente Island. It happens every few years. Local Wahoo... not so much!
When I was your age Pluto was a planet!

CI_Seawolf

Back in the 90's, caught dorado off Santa Monica pier trolling Rapala!
Stay Classy!